Air strike against Iran by August

If “an informed source” is correct, then President Bush appears willing to end his term in office with a bang. The source, reportedly a former assistant secretary of state, says the target would be the headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ elite Quds force.

$200 a barrel oil? Bet on it. A strike would also seem to favor John McCain in the November election, but it’s hard to say how the American people will respond.

Senators Feinstein (D-Cal.) and Lugar (R-In.) were to write an op-ed piece for the New York Times in opposition to the strike “within days”, but it has yet to appear.

Attacking Iran, a nation that is supporting insurgents in Iraq who are killing American soldiers, seems, on the surface, to be a no-brainer. They’re killing our troops, so let’s get ’em. But as we’ve learned over the last five years of shifting tribal, ethnic, and religious alliances in that part of the world, things are never as simple as they seem.

One sure consequence of a strike on Iran would be the complication of our already twisted relationship with Pakistan, a key ally on the Global War on Terror. Pakistan shares a border with Iran, and President Musarraf contends with powerful forces inside his country that would rather side with the Taliban. Keeping a lid on them after an attack on a Muslim neighbor would likely become much more difficult.

The White House denies that preparations are being made for a strike. We’ll see.

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