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Did They or Didn’t They?

My first thought on hearing the news that Iran had taken British sailors and Marines captive at gunpoint was “Gulf of Tonkin”. It’s not clear that this incident will blow up into a full-scale conflict, but war of words is definitely on:

Fifteen British sailors and marines detained off Iraq by the Iranian navy have admitted illegally entering Iranian waters, senior Iranian commander General Alireza Afshar said Saturday.

It may not be this incident, but something like this will be the match that ignites the war the neocons have wanted for a long, long time.